December 10, 2024 05:11 IST
First published: December 10, 2024 05:10 Indian Time
It is all but certain that 2024 will be the hottest year on record. The latest figures from the EU Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) show that last November was the 16th month in 17 months when the global average temperature rise was more than 1.5°C above the pre-industrial revolution period. The Paris Agreement commits its 196 signatories to keeping global warming below 1.5 degrees to limit the effects of climate disasters. The world came close to breaking that threshold last year. With temperatures expected to exceed 1.6 degrees in the first 11 months of 2024, C3S warns that the Paris benchmark will be exceeded this year. This does not mean a breach of the landmark climate treaty so far – its implementation has been measured in at least a decade. But reversing the warming trend will require sustained action on many fronts.
Meteorologists had predicted that global temperatures would drop slightly this year after the planet warmed to record levels in 2023. Their forecast was based on the cooling effect of La Niña, which was expected to set in initially in July and then in October. La Niña can only be confirmed if the Marine Nino index drops to at least -0.5 degrees continuously. This threshold has not been met so far this year, leaving scientists baffled – something the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has admitted is “alarming”. Only twice in the past 75 years has La Niña set in later than October. Experts estimate that La Niña will weaken even when it arrives in the middle of winter. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology estimates this could be as late as February 2025. From affecting crop cycles and energy use to increasing the irregularity of extreme weather events to affecting local pollution, the behavior of these ocean phenomena creates a new climate. A related challenge. Policy makers will have to prepare for economic impacts and scientists and weather agencies will have to work together to refine forecast models.
Close to the announcement of C3S on November temperatures, the Swiss Re Institute – the academic arm of the insurance major – released a report on the economic costs of extreme weather events. It estimates that climate change will cost the world $320 billion this year, 25 percent more than the average over the past decade. Climate extremes do not necessarily evolve into disaster risk. Reducing greenhouse gas emissions and adapting to climate variability is key to a climate-resilient world. If the record of post-Paris CoPs is any indication, national governments and global policymaking agencies have their work cut out for them.