A critical look at the Paris Agreement, nine years after it was finalized Breaking news

The key goal of the Paris Agreement — keeping global annual average temperature within 1.5 degrees Celsius of the pre-industrial average, two degrees Celsius in the worst-case scenario — seems more distant than ever. In a clear sign of growing frustration with the treaty, many developing countries, led by small island nations, are beginning to explore alternative approaches to a more effective fight against climate change. The International Court of Justice is currently hearing a case seeking to define the obligations of countries on climate change and the consequences arising from those obligations.

Changing course

Before the Paris Agreement, came the Kyoto Protocol in 1997. In keeping with the principles of equality and differentiated responsibilities enshrined in the 1992 United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), the Kyoto Protocol laid out the bulk of the obligations to combat climate change. When the rich and developed countries ask the developing countries to contribute according to their respective capacities.

But developed countries, unafraid of China’s growing economic power, and afraid of the disruptions climate obligations would impose on their own economies, worked hard to dismantle the Kyoto Protocol. Although their first attempt, made at the Copenhagen conference in 2009, failed, developed countries managed to make their way to Paris six years later.

The Paris Agreement for everyone to contribute seriously undermined the fight against climate change. The Kyoto Protocol set specific emission reduction targets for developed countries, but virtually no responsibility was placed on the rest of the world. The Paris Agreement mandated everyone to take climate action, but only in a “nationally-determined” manner, essentially freeing developed countries from their assigned responsibilities.

With each country making only minimal efforts to meet its Paris commitments, global climate action is no longer tied to the emissions reductions needed to keep global warming in check.

Progressive weakening

But even the provisions in the Paris Agreement have been gradually dismantled over the years to suit the interests of the developed world.

Nothing illustrates this better than the financing agreement reached in Baku this year. Developed nations, under the UNFCCC’s legal obligations, must provide finance and technology to developing countries to help combat climate change. Developed nations have pledged to raise $100 billion annually for this purpose from 2020. The Paris Agreement has a provision to increase this amount after 2025.

Many assessments show that developing countries need trillions of dollars annually for climate action. However, in Baku, developed countries agreed to raise the $100 billion amount to $300 billion annually, and that too only from 2035. Lack of adequate finance almost crushes any hope of more ambitious climate action from developing countries.

Declining trust

With Donald Trump back in power next year, the United States is almost certain to pull out of the Paris Agreement again. In general, confidence in the Paris Agreement is waning, especially in countries most threatened by climate impacts.

That’s why Vanuatu, a small island nation north-east of Australia, galvanized similarly situated nations to get a resolution passed by the UN General Assembly last year seeking advice from the ICJ on which countries have climate obligations.

The ICJ was asked to make its assessment not only in the light of the existing climate-specific legal regime represented by the UNFCCC and its two treaties, the Kyoto Protocol and the Paris Agreement, but also in light of other international laws such as the Universal Declaration of Human Rights.